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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare

The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

After-Dark Attacks

As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.

Ongoing Risks

Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.

Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.

Current Realities

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.