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A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."

New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Each composes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.

Discussions cover national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."

Request for Broader Dialogue

Westminster must participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."