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Back in 2018, it took just a short phrase to ignite a Labour conference demonstrating Labour was becoming disillusioned with its then leader. Although not exactly soaring oratory, the words met with wild cheering as most of the hall rose in an impromptu ovation.

When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "Nobody is ruling out staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.

During that darkly divisive time in 2018, departing from the prepared script in this way was inevitably viewed as laying down the gauntlet to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise leave supporters in key constituencies over the pro-European instincts within Labour. In just one speech, this grey-suited shadow Brexit secretary was transformed – albeit temporarily – into a political gambler who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against the leadership he later succeeded.

The Shift in Position and Closed Issues

In the years since, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. An early move after taking over in 2020 was to declare the EU question had been settled by the 2019 general election. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge promises that ruled out rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Like his predecessor, his strategy has been to pursue Brexit-y voters in key seats, despite survey data indicates many of them have died or changed their minds.

Pressure Building on the EU

Yet, it’s now the prime minister’s turn to face the pressures of being a Labour leader. While EU relations is no longer the central crisis in UK politics, the cap that has been kept tightly sealed since Brexit is beginning to rattle again.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have intensified the rhetoric about the devastation caused by Brexit has inflicted on the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat Nigel Farage, who now rarely mentions his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and remains his only real achievement.

Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has left Britain with a national economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the micro-mitigation thus far implemented by the government. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal agreed with Brussels last summer provides gains quantified in low decimal points.

Internal Pressure and Ambitious Proposals

The chancellor is one of those trying to overcome entrenched Home Office resistance to a broader scheme designed to boost growth program for young people allowing young people can travel between Britain and Europe for work or study.

David Lammy muses openly regarding the clear advantages of being in a customs union with the EU, while a dozen Labour MPs, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, recently voted for a Liberal Democrat motion on joining one.

Although Nick Thomas-Symonds, who oversees UK-EU relations, now present at all cabinet sessions, insists the red lines remain unchanged, there exist avenues these could be bypassed. A proposal involves declaring the commencement of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, for inclusion in the following election platform, with implementation only if securing a fresh mandate.

The Prime Minister's Deep-Seated Scepticism

However, Starmer has most recently pouring cold water on the idea by warning rejoining a European customs area could undermine the trade pacts with America, which he regards as signature achievements of his premiership.

Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, and is rooted in three further factors.

1. Firstly, he believes any customs union agreement is now significantly more difficult because his ministers actively diverging from EU regulations in numerous sectors, including the environment.
2. Second, the prohibitive cost demanded from Britain for entry into the EU’s new defence fund and the subsequent collapse in talks has convinced UK negotiators that former EU partners are less interested in offering favorable terms to the UK than in proving that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, which has been welcomed by Moscow, is seen by key advisors in Downing Street as a reason for Britain to maintain distance from the EU.

A Bizarre Document and Geopolitical Considerations

This strange and concerning document claims Europe faces “civilizational erasure” because of Muslim migration. It contains only one reference of the UK, found on a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in our politics to encourage the growth of nationalist movements.

But, far from concluding that this renders the US an undependable ally, the government reportedly fear that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by risking fragile US military support for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Leadership Speculation and The Ghost of 2018

All of which brings us back to the conference of 2018. Starmer has always said that address was not a pitch to become leader but merely an attempt to preserve the “option” of remain being on the ballot paper. In fact, back then, Starmer still favoured a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.

But it’s not been lost on the Prime Minister's office note that the Health Secretary, widely considered would be a candidate in any leadership election, is among a clutch of senior ministers signaling they desire greater ambition regarding the EU.

Aides to Angela Rayner, another probable runner in a future race for the top job, maintain she won’t discuss her position regarding a customs pact as it would merely “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Obvious Danger & A Wise Reminder

The risk is clear. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters are to be found.

It would be prudent for Starmer to recall the impact that a short phrase had on his career seven years ago. There are options for a major proposal on Europe that the prime minister ought to consider; he should prise them open personally, rather than letting rivals adopt them as their own.